I am become death, the destroyer of the worlds.

"I am become death, the destroyer of the worlds." -- J. Robert Oppenheimer, 'The Father of the Atomic Bomb'.

A nice sounding quote (with a sad tone) from the creator of one of the world's first nuclear weapon, I feel that it accurately portraits our current global condition and how Subprime has changed our financial system forever.

I wasn't gonna write an entry about the financial mess but the panic in the recent days gave me the right incentives. Global markets basically came to a crash-and-burn last Friday and today. Financial institutions are facing unprecedented liquidity dry-out. Corporates (in America or not) are facing drastic slowdown in profit, sovereigns are facing default risks (Iceland, Argentina, Korea, to name a few).

First and foremost, I would like to follow-up on a conversation I had with a few fellow players on how this mess will affect the world. I would like to ask them to rethink about their opinions, as I highly doubt that they will remain unchanged. Previously, my witty friends confidently told me that this crisis is nothing compared to the Great Depression, that it's just a reset. Everything will be fine after the crash-and-burn. Also, they saw this crisis as created by the financial institutions, and limited to impacting the financial institutions. I would like them to rethink, and reassess how big the impact is likely to be.

In my view as a hedge fund trader, I see the upcoming years being extremely difficult, and not just for the financial sector. I see businesses across the board come to a huge deterioration in profit, and a lot of them will not be able to make it through the downswing. The weaker, less well-managed, business will go bust, and unemployment rate will soar to at least a 20-years high. The layoff trend will spread from the financial institutions to nearly every sector.

Interestingly, I'm already seeing behavioral changes. I personally am less comfortable in spewing money on a 5-star dinner or an expensive vacation. I see lots of idle cabs at taxi stands which previously guarantee a queue. Expensive restaurants which costs more than US250 per head and required a 3-weeks advance booking can now be booked for same-day. Most of these stemmed from the losses people are taking in the stock market, but also the fact that they might be laid-off the next morning. Good time to be holding a lot of cash.

In terms of poker, I think now is a GREAT time to win a major donkament. A million dollars now is worth a lot more than a million dollars a year ago simply because things are (and will be) much cheaper and people around you are less rich. Also, I see the ring games getting tougher because the live ones will have a tighter bankroll. No more Chinamen who don't give a ding about shoving with 5Jo in a 3-way pot people! Time to play some quality poker in games which were previously donk-fests! So, in general, I see the EV shifting from the cash games to tournaments, especially the televised ones. (If you can land a sponsor deal now, it'll beat your day job by about 10x.) Personally, I'm gonna play less cash games (and I'll need more value at a table than previously for me to sit down), but I'm gonna play more tournies as long as the traveling cost doesn't kill me.

First post!

Hi all! This would be my first post at this new location. It's sad to say that this will also be the only blog which I will be keeping up to date. The main reason being pokerworldasia.com directed me to a "Page Not Found" as of today. (EDIT: pwa was offline yday only it seems.) Boohoo. I wish that site could be better attended to, but hey, I gave them my best effort. My blog was definitely the most read section of that site and it's about as much as I could've done.

I was gonna write my first blog about the current financial mess we're in but then I gave up the idea. There're just enough of these blogs (some very good ones) online and I don't need to add to the repetition. If anyone's interested in how I see this mess as a hedge fund trader please voice it out here and I'll write something about it.

So, instead of writing about the ridiculous mess, I'm gonna write about something much more pleasant, such as my upcoming traveling plans. Here it is:

Nov 13-16: APPT Manila (main attraction for me: poker. errrr... no kidding.)
Nov 30 - Dec 8: Sydney (main attraction: APPT Sydney, see what's down under, see gf's 'hood.)
Apr 2009 around Easter: JW Marriott at Sanya (main attraction: resort, sunbaking, sleep.)
Jun 27 - Jul 5 2009: Toronto (main attraction: see friends, Canada Day at Nick's cottage, Fallsview, show gf my 'hood.)

Yes folks, I'll be in T.O next June! Start saving up! Whoever'll be in town at the same period pls holla! Let's hit up Fallsview together!

I'm so very excited about my upcoming plans.... given the current market it's not a bad time to be traveling. BTW, this Sunday I'm gonna be in Macau playing the satellite for APPT Manila. Please join me if you can!