Thursday, January 24, 2013

Apple Inc, Part 2

Back on November 6, 2012 I wrote about shorting Apple, which at the time was $587 and 13x PE. Today Apple took a post-earning dive to $460. Earnings was good, except there's no more growth. (By the way, the official "reason" for the selloff, ie the numbers having missed street guestimate, is lots of bullshit. Wall Street's guestimate is as clueless as the next guy's, and everyone's just managing everyone's expectation. So don't buy into that.)

Apple's problems:

Tim Cook sounding more and more like a muppet and Steve Ballmer;
The company showed no sign of moving forward. Tim Cook somehow mentioned the iphone 4 on the earnings conference call. for fuck's sake;
The company isn't recognizing the threat of canibalization. It's living in a delusion not unlike the Los Angeles Lakers;
Innovation is now as foreign a term as Follow Others' Lead was to Steve Jobs;
Tim Cook's profit mining style is not helping.

What I care about in Apple is long term growth. Right now, I don't see any. I see a company that's going down the Nokia, RIM, and Mackintosh-era Apple route.

Short Apple. If you already are shorting it, short more. To the ground this goes.

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